June U.S. Jobs Report Raises Pressure on Fed for September Rate Cut
The June jobs report sent a clear message to the Federal Reserve — the central bank risks falling behind the curve.
Job gains in excess of 200,000 last month flattered a report that otherwise suggested the US labor market is quickly cooling off, as the unemployment rate rose to its highest level since November 2021 and wage growth rose at the slowest annual rate since May 2021. The unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed to 4.1%, tied for the highest level since October 2021.
Forecasts from the Fed released on June 12 suggested the officials expected to cut rates just once in 2024. Yet, a closer look at the dot-plot that aggregates these forecasts shows that moving to prime markets for two cuts in 2024 shouldn't be a tall order. In June, seven Fed officials expected one rate cut in 2024, but 8 forecast two cuts. Four Fed officials who penciled in no cuts this year.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has sought to downplay the importance of the dot-plot over the last year as markets tried to pin the U.S. central bank down on increasingly precise forecasts. The absolute accuracy of the dot-plot may remain murky, but the direction officials think policy should go is clear.
Carnival's Business Has Been Doing Well: Why is Its Stock Still Underperforming?
Carnival (CCL) has been generating strong results in recent quarters, but its stock is still nowhere near its levels before the pandemic, when shares were trading above $50.
US Economy Showing Signs of 'Goldilocks' to Start Third Quarter
The U.S. economy continues to show signs of resilient growth while inflation pressures subside.
Five of 12 Fed Districts Report Flat or Declining Economic Activity, Beige Book Finds
U.S. economic activity seemed to soften in the past two months, with five of the Federal Reserve’s 12 regions reporting flat or declining activity, a Fed survey released Wednesday found.
